Threats and opportunities to upland landscapes in post-Brexit England

All recent indications from government announcements are that the current level of agricultural subsidies will continue at least until 2020. After this date, the picture is less certain, but it must be assumed that change is likely and that this could mean less financial support for upland agriculture. This will have far-reaching implications for the sector and knock-on effects on the wider landscape of the English hills. This paper will explore the possible threats and opportunities to upland landscapes in England under several post-Brexit scenarios including "business as usual", land abandonment, rewilding and intensification of both livestock grazing and commercial forestry. Readily available spatial datasets will be used together with some newly created national wildness maps to identify possible geographical patterns of land use change over the next few decades in a post-Brexit climate. Datasets used include Agricultural Land Capability (ALC), High Nature Value farming (HNV) areas, Less Favoured Areas (LFA), Agricultural Census information of stocking densities, etc. together with wildness quality indicators (remoteness and naturalness) mapped for the John Muir Trust across the whole of the UK. Possible spatial patterns in threats (e.g. abandonment) and opportunities (e.g. rewilding) together with changes in land use patterns from intensification of grazing, game and commercial forestry activities will be mapped.