How does woodland restoration affect future landscape ecosystem services?

The UK has a low total area of woodlands compared to most European countries, and their functioning is often further impaired by their individual small size and isolation. At the same time, woodlands satisfy a number of vital societal needs such as clean air, flood protection, and timer. Considered as ecosystem services, an increase in the size of woodlands or improvement in their condition may enhance these benefits. We assess possible outcomes of different scenarios of woodland restoration and management in terms of the flow of ecosystem services under future climate. The ‘flow of ecosystem services’ refers to provision of products and benefits from the ecosystems to society, and incorporates several descriptors of the process: what service is provided, quantity measured by a metric, where is the source of the service, in absolute and relative location, and how the service provision changes over time. We use two ongoing large-scale restoration projects in England and Scotland (The National Forest and the Great Trossachs Forest) as case studies, and focus on simulating the effects of alternative outcomes of various planned scenarios.  We integrate a suite of simulation modelling tools in a spatially explicit approach to project long-term landscape-scale dynamics of existing and potential woodlands. We use tools such as InVest and CostingNature to quantify the ecosystem services associated with each scenario, and assess sensitivity of the models to structural and environmental factors (e.g. size, age, forest type of woodland patches) to discern relative role of different drivers. The target ecosystem services include timber production, renewable energy, biodiversity, nutrient retention, carbon sequestration, erosion control, water retention, air quality, and recreation and education. The project aims to fill a significant knowledge gap through its approach to multifunctional, dynamic projections of ecosystem services provision over time, integrated with spatial analyses and strengthened by use of multiple tools and scales. It will improve our understanding of the drivers underlying the changes in ecosystem services provision, and provide salient information to managers and policy makers for decisions in the face of future uncertainties.